Abstract: “This research will first examine the impact of climate change, tail loss and economic capital on major crops losses due to single-peril in crop insurance program based on panel data using copula-simulation method for 10 major crops over the 1971-2012. The purpose of this research will build the copula of temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration are copula to be the major climate variables and to assess the tail value at risk (TVaR) loss and economic capital models under climate changes copula estimated. The findings will be important in providing useful knowledge to future help examining risk measures that measure TVaR loss that can be used for determining provisions and capital requirements in order to avoid insolvency on government agricultural budgeting or insurer's coverage and to discovering effective regulations of crop insurance design and to enhance the efficiency of agricultural markets in future.”

Keywords: climate change copulaed, COPULA-AR-GARCH loss models, economic capital