Abstract: “State-based Markov deterioration models (SMDM) sometimes fail to find accurate transition probability matrix (TPM) values, and hence lead to invalid future condition prediction or incorrect average deterioration rates mainly due to drawbacks of existing nonlinear optimization-based algorithms and/or subjective function types used for regression analysis. Furthermore, a set of separate functions for each condition state with age cannot be easily derived by using Markov model for a given bridge element group, which however is of interest to industrial partners. This paper presents a new approach for deterioration modelling that follows homogeneous Markov models, namely, the Modified Weibull approach, which consists of a set of appropriate functions to describe the percentage condition prediction of bridge elements in each state. These functions are combined with Bayesian approach and Metropolis Hasting Algorithm (MHA) based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique for quantif”

Keywords: Deterioration modelling, Modified-Weibull approach, MCMC simulation, Markov model, MHA Algorithm.