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EPIDEMIC MODEL FOR EBOLA DISEASE

Published In: 2ND INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ADVANCES IN APPLIED SCIENCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGY
Author(s): DIPO ALDILA , EDY SOEWONO , TRI JULIANSYAH M. SAMBAS

Abstract: Outbreaks of Ebola disease in early 2014 in West Africa is a major highlight for researchers throughout the world because of the high mortality rate. Ebola disease is caused by a virus named Ebola virus which can be transmitted from infected humans to healthy humans through direct contact with their body fluids. But there is another evidence that Ebola virus can be transmitted through the bodies of humans who recently died from the disease. Because of that, this epidemic model for Ebola disease is built by considering the number of human bodies who recently died from the disease. The epidemic model is constructed with a SEIRD model, in which the addition D compartment represents the number of human bodies who recently died from Ebola disease. Two control parameters are included in the model in the form of a rate of isolation of infected persons and the expose period of the dead bodies. The basic reproductive number is obtained and sensitivity analysis of is shown.

  • Publication Date: 29-Aug-2015
  • DOI: 10.15224/978-1-63248-075-0-41
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NEAR ENDEMIC COEXISTENCE IN A MODEL OF DENGUE AND CHIKUNGUNYA

Published In: 2ND INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ADVANCES IN APPLIED SCIENCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGY
Author(s): EDY SOEWONO

Abstract: Chikungunya and dengue are re-emerging diseases which are transmitted by Aedes spp. mosquitoes. Although originated from a different location, as the human mobility increases a concurrent outbreak may happen in other places. A mathematical model of chikungunya and dengue transmission with a control is constructed in the framework of SEIR-SEI model. The model is expressed in the form of a 13-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations to describe the dynamics of compartments within human and mosquito populations. We find three equilibrium points and discuss its stability. By using the next generation matrix, we obtain two thresholds represent the basic reproduction number that related to chikungunya and dengue. We show that although there is no coexistence equilibrium, the two diseases could coexist for a relatively long period of time. In terms of control, we investigate the effect of fumigation treatment as a constant parameter in the model. Our analysis and simulation resul

  • Publication Date: 29-Aug-2015
  • DOI: 10.15224/978-1-63248-075-0-42
  • Views: 0
  • Downloads: 0